
How Do Forward-Looking Estimates of Credit Losses Affect the Judgments of Financial-Statement Users?
Lisa Koonce, Cassie Mongold, Laura Quaid, Jennifer Winchel. How Do Forward-Looking Estimates of Credit Losses Affect the Judgments of Financial-Statement Users? Contemporary Accounting Research, 2026 (forthcoming).
Accounting standards now require companies to estimate credit losses over the full life of a financial asset, rather than recognizing losses only when current conditions signal trouble. This study examines how the change in accounting affects the way financial statement users judge a loan, and the managers who made it, after it defaults. Across three experiments, the study finds that providing earlier warnings about potential credit losses can reduce hindsight bias—the tendency to believe an outcome was more predictable after it happens—by making actual losses seem less surprising. As a result, users are less likely to judge managers’ original lending decisions harshly.










